IS MOLDOVA THE NEXT DESTINATION AFTER UKRAINE?

Abstract

Russia aims to regain its role as a global actor, which it lost after the collapse of the USSR, by influencing the post-Soviet lands today. The most powerful weapon on these countries is the frozen conflict zones and the civilian and military presence there. The fact that Russia has a communist management understanding far from democracy and does not have a high level of economic prosperity causes it to implement a hard power policy instead of a soft power policy like the West. When northern and eastern European countries are considered, the countries that maintain their neutrality between Russia and NATO and/or EU member states are Moldova, Belarus and Ukraine. The Russian military presence protecting the Cold War-era ammunition in Transnistria and Cobasna village, which is the weakest link politically, economically and militarily in the irredentist attempt initiated by Russia with the Ukraine war, makes Moldova an easier target. Russia had declared that it would not accept NATO and EU enlargement in a way that would endanger its security and make the Post-Soviet countries become members, which it described as the "red line", and that its reaction would be very harsh even in the deepening of relations. He proved this in the Ukrainian war. Now, Moldova, which is constantly deepening its relations with NATO and the EU against Russia's Eurasian policy, is the next target due to its current conditions and geopolitical importance.